State budget in turmoil; revenues lower than expected

The state budget, HB 1 by Rep. Jim Fannin (D-Jonesboro), is bogged down in the Senate Finance Committee, and there is no clear picture of what the budget will actually look like after the session ends on June 21.

As proposed, the $25.4 billion budget includes deep cuts for higher education, health care and a number of other state responsibilities. But as reported in the May 21 edition of the Weekly Legislative Digest, the Senate and House of Representatives are at loggerheads over resolving a shortfall facing the state in the current budget year.

The stumbling block is over use of the state’s “rainy day fund” to shore up the budget. While both sides want to use the fund to avoid a constitutionally prohibited deficit, they disagree over how and when the funds should be repaid.

The situation grew murkier on Friday, when the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference met to announce yet another shortfall in state revenues. With just two weeks left in the fiscal year, state economists said that revenues have fallen by another $261.4 million this year.

The state already cut this fiscal year’s budget by $200 million last December, and by another $319 million in April.

Leading the most recent decline in estimated revenues is a $250 million shortfall in collection of personal income taxes.

As Greg Albrecht, chief economist for the legislative fiscal office, said, “Obviously, we have been dramatically wrong this year.”

That set up yet another confrontation between the House and Senate. Speaker of the House Jim Tucker (R-Terrytown) said the Revenue Estimating Conference should not accept the economist’s report until the end of the year, and use some constitutional sleight-of-hand to pay back the deficit in the coming year.

Senate President Joel Chaisson (D-Destrehan), on the other hand, said the constitution does not allow a deficit, and recommended that the conference recognize the shortfall, which would require more cuts over the next couple of weeks.

Because decisions by the Revenue Estimating Conference must be unanimous, the issue was left hanging at that point.

The Senate Finance Committee will continue its discussion of HB1 next week.

Roemer (Jr.) splits sheets with Jindal, sticks with Pastorek

BESE member Chas Roemer is attacking Gov. Bobby Jindal for playing political games with the state's education system. Roemer, a Baton Rouge Republican, says that Jindal, a Baton Rouge Republican, is unwilling to "risk some political capital" to improve schools, according to Advocate reporter Will Sentell.

The cause of the split is a pair of legislative bills aimed at creating a separate diploma track for students at risk of dropping out and who obviously have no intention of going to college. The plan by Sen. Bob Kostelka and Rep. Jim Fannin has some legs - it's been endorsed by education committees in both houses. The two lawmakers say a separate track is necessary to bring down the state's unacceptably high (as high as 50%) school dropout rate.

The issue has apparently driven a wedge between the governor and State Superintendent of Education Paul Pastorek. While Jindal and Pastorek have been inseparable on school issues this year, the governor is now apparently supporting the Kostelka/Fannin plan.

Could Pastorek, whose popularity with legislators is in the cellar, wind up in a political wilderness with only Chas Roemer to give him comfort?

Lawmakers say state is lowballing dropout rates

Louisiana's school dropout rate is much higher than has been reported by the State Department of Education, according to lawmakers trying to create a separate diploma track for students who don't intend to go to college.

Sen. Bob Kostelka of Monroe and Rep. Jim Fannin of Jonesboro have introduced identical bills that would allow struggling students to choose a career major for high school instead of a college prep curriculum.

The lawmakers contend that if students see a practical application for their studies - and the possibility of a job - they would be more inclined to stay in school and graduate.

Superintendent of Education Paul Pastorek is sticking with an old tired argument about the necessity for rigor in our schools. The logic proceeds something like this: too many students are dropping out of school, so we need to make it harder to graduate. He's apparently forgotten that, once upon a time, relevance was considered as important as rigor in defining a curriculum.

And if Kostelka and Fannin are right, relevance is desperately needed, because the true number of dropouts has been lowballed by the State Department of Education.

DOE contends that about a third of ninth-graders never complete high school, which is pretty bad, considering that the national average is one in four.

What those figures leave out, though, is that a significant number of students struggle with the eighth grade LEAP test and drop out BEFORE ninth grade. That makes the actual dropout rate closer to 50%, say Kostelko and Fannin.

Obviously, we are dealing with a significant number of kids for whom college is not an option. But that does not mean they should be discarded (which is what happens now). They deserve an opportunity for a meaningful education that prepares them for decent jobs.

That's what the career course bills are all about. It's not watering down the curriculum - it's about making the education system work for all of our children.

Advocate reporter Will Sentell has a story about the issue here.